Newsgroups: uk.politics.misc uk.finance scot.politics
Subject: Re: Senior economist predicts house price crash of between 20 to   50%
From: Nick Lacey 
Date: 24 Mar 2006 20:01:29 +0000

jim@jibbering.com (Jim Ley) writes:

> On Fri, 24 Mar 2006 19:01:04 -0000, "Tumbleweed"
>  wrote:

> > If I 
> >'really beluieved' for example, that my house would fall in value by 50% 
> >over the next year, I'd be barking mad not to sell, I'd make 6 figures, tax 
> >free, in a year.
> 
> Most people will have significant mortgages reducing the size of any
> gain, 

If I believed that that house prices were going to crash, I would do
the following:

1) Place a large spread bet with someone like IG Index

2) Not bother trying to convince other people that a house price crash
   is imminent, as it really wouldn't make any difference.

It seems to me that the only reason to act otherwise would be if I
'hoped' or 'thought' that house prices might crash, in which case a
spread bet would be a stupid idea. But if I 'really believed' that
this is what would happen, then this would be a sensible thing to do.

> and not everyone is as money obessed as you, if I had a house I
> liked to live in, I wouldn't sell it for some profit - I'd not be so
> likely to find somewhere else equivalent.

Given that this is appearing in 'uk.finance', finding someone
'obsessed with money' is perhaps to be expected ...

Regards,

Nick