From: "Tim" 
Newsgroups: uk.legal uk.finance
Subject: Re: Lottery syndicate - is this guy breaking any laws?
Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2007 15:40:21 -0000

>>"Cynic" wrote
>>> Easier to demonstrate the fallacy by simply looking at the odds of
>>> winning with 44 random tickets, which would be 14 mill divided by 44, 
>>> ...
>>
> "Tim" wrote:
>>If that were true, then the odds of winning with 14M random tickets
>>would be 14M divided by 14M = 100%.  But you are *not*
>>guaranteed to win the jackpot, if you buy 14M *random* tickets!
>>
>>[You might have, randomly, missed that particular selection of 6 
>>numbers...]
>
"Cynic" wrote
> That is not how the maths of probability works at all.

I know - that's why I said:  " **IF** that were true ..."

"Cynic" wrote
> Having a *probability* of 100% does
> not mean that you will win every time...

You must need to brush-up on your basic probability.
It means *exactly* that - a probability
of 1.0 (aka "100%") *is* a certainty.

"Cynic" wrote
> ... just that the average number of wins over a large number of
> attempts will be equal to the number of attempts.  That includes
> the situations where more than one ticket wins in a draw.

You are confusing averages with probabilities.
Think a little about what you are saying!

"Cynic" wrote
> Yes, I am aware that the mechanics of the lottery mean that
> if you win multiple times the prize is divided by the number
> of wins, but that is not relevant wrt the probability of winning.

Exactly.  The probability of winning is only ever 1.0 (100%) if
you have covered all 14M-odd possible selections of 6 numbers.
Only in that case is the probability 100% and then
it *is* a certainty that you will share the jackpot.

"Cynic" wrote
> If you wish to exclude the double-win situation, you need to introduce
> the additional rule that no two random selections may be the same.

With that additional rule, it would **NOT** be random!!