From: "Miss L. Toe" 
Newsgroups: uk.finance
Subject: Re: newbie,couple of premium bond questions
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 14:42:28 -0000


 wrote in message
news:1165500194.840878.143140@l12g2000cwl.googlegroups.com...
>
> Tim wrote:
> > >> Seamer wrote:
> > >> > As future results are in no way affected by past outcomes, there is
> > >> > also no guarantee of a "positive correction" on this in the future.
> > >>
> > > "Ronald Raygun" wrote:
> > >> While there are indeed no guarantees, in a way future results
> > >> *are* affected by past outcomes, inasmuch as you can expect
> > >> your personal average, over time, to get closer and closer
> > >> to *the* average the longer you wait.  Accordingly you
> > >> should get some above average results "any year now".
> > >>
> >  wrote
> > > No, this is wrong.
> >
> > No, it is right.
>
> It is absolutely wrong.
>
> The statement 'Accordingly you should get some above average results
> "any year now"' is why people irrationally continue to gamble. Whether
> you've had a run of good or bad luck, all you can expect in the future
> is a run of average luck.
>

Actually the last sentance of the statement is correct(if you ignore the
word accordingly), whilst on average all you can expect in the future is the
average - you ought to get some better than average years in the future and
some worse than average. So you ought to "get some above average results"
(and some below).

However the first statement "in a way future results *are* affected by past
outcomes" is false.