From: "Jane Tweedynn" 
Newsgroups: uk.finance
Subject: Re: LOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT ABOUT HOUSE PRICES
Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2004 13:21:24 +0100


"Mike Mitchell"  wrote in message 
news:v92pl0puntoeqba63cujk4hasolv22e912@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 30 Sep 2004 18:33:34 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
>  wrote:
>
>>The trend most certainly is *not* down at the moment.
>
> Yes, it is. The market is dead. Every single estate agent I talk to
> (except my own, of course!), every neighbour, everybody I hear
> commenting about the dire situation with NO first-time buyers coming
> into the market, is saying it because it is true. You may wish to
> "talk up" the market, but it has disappeared right now. And in the
> run-up to Christmas, who is going to be buying houses anyway?

Firstly housing is a regional issue, just because in your area everyone is 
pessimistic does not mean your region represents the country as a whole.

I regularly read the news and I do not yet form the opinion that it is a 
dire situation.  Yes you have extremist views where some say it will crash 
while others say it will continue forever :).  From all the information I 
have read over the last few months, the general view is that house prices 
will grow but with growth much lower.  I don't doubt that a lot of these 
reports people have a vested interest so they will put their own spin on it 
but I don't think we can yet call the top.  Tops are called well after the 
event, I hardly think a couple months of reduced growth represents a change 
of market direction, we had reduced growth the previous year.

I have been astonished at the price increases of the last few years and have 
often said like everyone else that they can't go any higher, but remarkably 
they do.  I wish for a crash so I can trade up, infact I hope for a really 
good crash where I can pick up an house for a tenner, I might buy two then, 
but this is hardly likely to happen.

I hope you have called the top and the trend is down, but you really are 
guessing, or maybe even hoping.

Tell me this is the first time you have called this market top.